Trump Media & Technology Group: The Stock Wager on Election Outcome

By Ethan Bennett Nov 2, 2024

As elections heat up, Trump Media & Technology Group shares swing heavily despite little company news, indicating market stakeholders betting on election results.

With the U.S. presidential campaign entering its climax, the stock market isn't left out of the drama, particularly shares associated with the candidates. Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), owned majorly by former President Donald Trump, witnessed a 9% drop recently, landing at around $32 per share. Despite these fluctuations, this week saw shares peaking at 40% above last Friday’s closing near $39 and dipping about 18% below it, affecting Trump's vast holding value.

The swings are primarily fueled by speculation rather than substantial news about DJT, which runs the Truth Social platform. Traders are viewing these shifts as a betting ground for the presidential election, widely assumed as a race between Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. It was also reported by the New York Post that some market stakeholders think billionaire Elon Musk might consider acquiring DJT.

The upcoming election, as per polls, seems to be a neck-and-neck race. Prediction markets lean towards a Trump win with Polymarket traders estimating over a 60% likelihood of a Trump win during this week, although other platforms pointed to slightly lower odds.

DJT stock trading has experienced significant fluctuations, even encountering several volatility-based pauses this week. There was a point when the shares traded at their initial high-level post-launch this year, but they have since retreated back to July levels after rallying from the October lows.

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