A recent downturn in the job market growth rate for October is attributed partly to the effects of hurricanes Helene and Milton. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to confirm this in the much-awaited job market report, which will likely indicate that U.S. employers added 110,000 jobs in the flagged month. This is a significant downturn from the 254,000 figure of September, as revealed by a survey conducted by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The statistics show the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, which though not historically high, is above last year's 50-year low.
The impact of the hurricanes has temporarily displaced a number of workers making it difficult for analysts to assess the actual long-term status of the job market and its impact on the economy. However, recent data suggests that the impact of the hurricanes on the job market might not be as severe as initially considered following a dip in new unemployment claims last week to 216,000 from the previous week's 228,000, according to the Department of Labor.
This report is crucial as it is the last comprehensive report to be released ahead of the general elections and before the Federal Reserve's policy committee's meeting in November. Expected discussions by the committee may include potential cuts to the Federal Bank's fed funds rate to boost the economy.
Interest rates were previously cut at the committee's last meeting in September following indicators of a slowdown in the job market and a cooling inflation rate. Officials could potentially cut the rates further should the job creation rate decline drastically. However, if the report matches expectations, a slowdown won't be significant enough to trigger hastened rate cut decisions.
Financial markets already anticipate a 94.8% chance that the Fed will cut the fed funds rate by 0.25 percentage points by their next meeting as reported by CME Group's FedWatch tool. The tool predicts these movements based on fed funds futures trading data.
Complications are expected from the recent Boeing strike potentially reducing hiring figures further. As we wait, any major deviations from these expectations could steer Fed officials away from the slow-and-steady rate cuts currently anticipated.