The destructive effects of hurricanes Milton and Helene might interfere with the U.S. economy's job creation consecutive victories, potentially putting a dampener on what could be a landmark success for President Joe Biden. From the time Biden took over presidency, the U.S. economy has been registering job growth every month. If this series was to remain unbroken through January, Biden would be credited as the first president under whose tenure, the economy never experienced a job loss.
However, due to the hurricanes' impact, merely 12,000 jobs were created in October. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics decides to revise this figure downwards in the subsequent months, Biden's continuous streak could be shattered. The administration's record on job growth is often used by Biden as a testament to the effectiveness of his economic strategies and general performance of Democratic presidents who historically outpaced their Republican rivals in terms of job creation during their tenures.
Despite the slowdown in job growth during October, it does not signal any actual weakness in the economy. It merely is a transitory impact of the hurricanes. Nonetheless, if the numbers turn out to be negative, it could be a setback for the Democrats when critiquing the Biden administration's legacy.
Typically, the bureau alters its monthly jobs data to include the data that was unavailable during the initial report's drafting. A monthly jobs report undergoes two modifications over two months and one additional revision at the year's end, including information from unemployment insurance tax records.
Yet the future scenario about October revisions remains uncertain owing to the hurricanes' influence, which obstructed the job market and the bureau's data collection efforts. According to a bureau press release, fewer people responded to the surveys used for drafting the jobs report in October.
Despite this, Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed's hiring lab, stated in an interview with Investopedia that a positive revision is more probable than a negative one. However, the positive figure from October could easily be turned negative, as previous reports' downward revisions are frequent and usually exceed 12,000. As an illustration, last Friday, the bureau revised the job creation figures for September and August downward by a cumulative 112,000.