While the economy stands as a critical issue in this election, the concern over unemployment rates doesn't take center stage, contrary to previous elections. A recent Gallup survey exposing that, though 43% of survey participants flagged the economy as their principal concern, only a small subset of 2% mentioned unemployment as a major worry. This could potentially be due to the historical low unemployment rates, with a 4.1% rate for October 2024 marking the lowest in over two decades leading up to a presidential election.
Investopedia has published a collection of articles focusing on vital economic indicators ahead of the 2024 election. But it's important to note that unemployment rates have had a more significant influence on past elections due to higher rates voters had to grapple with.
In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden was victorious amidst runaway inflation during the height of the economic downturn precipitated by the COVID-19 lockdowns. The unemployment rate rose to an alarming 14.8% in April 2020, the highest in over 70 years. By the time the election took place, the unemployment rate was 6.8%, the highest during an election season in the last eight years.
In the 2016 presidential election, former President Donald Trump won with an unemployment rate of 4.9% in October of that year.
President Barack Obama won reelection in 2012 facing one of the highest unemployment rates voters have had to reckon with on election day. He had started his presidency with an unemployment rate of 6.5% in October 2008 toward the end of his first term, this reached a high of 10.0% in 2009 before slightly dropping to 7.8% in October 2012.
Former President George W. Bush won reelection in 2004 when the unemployment rate was 5.5%, a notch higher than the 3.9% when he assumed his first term. Interestingly, in 2004, more voters were concerned about the U.S. war in Iraq than the economy, according to a Gallup poll.
Historical data reveals that high unemployment rates can sway presidential elections. Former President George H.W. Bush lost his reelection attempt in 1992 when unemployment was at 7.3%, nearly two percentage points above when he assumed office. Similarly, former President Jimmy Carter's reelection bid in 1980 fell through amidst a 7.5% unemployment rate.
Former President Ronald Reagan provides an intriguing exception, clinching reelection in 1984 when unemployment was 7.4%, slightly lower than when he took office, and even after unemployment had surpassed 10% two years prior.